Land Equipment Will Be Shipped to Libya But What russia’s Going to Do About Su-34s and Su-25s Left in Syria

The situation concerning the russian military presence in Syria is developing rapidly. Currently, the outlines look like this: the ground forces of the russian contingent appear to be preparing for transfer by sea to Libya, with some units reportedly already relocated back to russia. However, the future of the aviation component stationed at the Khmeimim Air Base — featuring Su-24M and Su-35 combat aircraft — remains uncertain.

According to a recent report by the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, several landing ships and formally civilian vessels are now heading towards Syria to evacuate russian forces.

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Among these is the dry cargo vessel Sparta, which reportedly suffered a mechanical breakdown on December 23 while en route to Syria to assist in troop transport.

Particularly notable are the movements of VDR-class large landing ships of the russian Navy in the region. On December 22, Project 11711 landing craft Ivan Gren, assigned to the Northern Fleet, was spotted passing through the Strait of Gibraltar.

Additionally, satellite imagery captured on December 25, 2024, and published by OSINT analyst MT_Anderson shows a possible Project 775 landing ship docked in Tartus, suggesting its recent arrivals.

These activities, coupled with reports that the chief of staff of the 121st Landing Ship Brigade is aboard the VDK-class Alexander Otrakovsky, hint that the Kremlin is planning a “mega-rescue-operation” of its troops to Libya, primarily for propaganda aimed at domestic audiences.

At the Khmeimim Air Base, the status of russian aviation assets has also drawn attention. A video aired by Al-Jazeera on December 30, 2024, shows at least 10 Su-24M and Su-35 combat aircraft stationed at the base, alongside several transport aircraft, including Il-76, An-72, An-26, and an An-30 aerial photography plane.

Interestingly, the video reveals that russian personnel at the base made no attempt to interfere with the drone flight that captured the footage. The drone imagery further suggests that russian forces may have burned a significant volume of documents. They also managed to evacuate some equipment, as recorded on satellite images from mid-December 2024.

Read more: After Fleeing Syria, russia Will Try to Take Foothold in Libya Where the 3rd Civil War Can Break Out Any Moment